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Citation

Martinez del Castillo E, Zang CS, Buras A, Hacket-Pain A, Esper J, Serrano-Notivoli R, Hartl C, Weigel R, Klesse S, Resco de Dios V, Scharnweber T, Dorado-Li?án I, van der Maaten-Theunissen M, Jump A & Cavin L (2022) Climate-change-driven growth decline of European beech forests. Communications Biology, 5 (1), Art. No.: 163. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-022-03107-3

Abstract
The growth of past, present, and future forests was, is and will be affected by climate variability. This multifaceted relationship has been assessed in several regional studies, but spatially resolved, large-scale analyses are largely missing so far. Here we estimate recent changes in growth of 5800 beech trees (Fagus sylvatica L.) from 324 sites, representing the full geographic and climatic range of species. Future growth trends were predicted considering state-of-the-art climate scenarios. The validated models indicate growth declines across large region of the distribution in recent decades, and project severe future growth declines ranging from -20% to more than -50% by 2090, depending on the region and climate change scenario (i.e. CMIP6 SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Forecasted forest productivity losses are most striking towards the southern distribution limit of Fagus sylvatica, in regions where persisting atmospheric high-pressure systems are expected to increase drought severity. The projected 21st century growth changes across Europe indicate serious ecological and economic consequences that require immediate forest adaptation.

Keywords
Climate-change ecology; Drought; Forest ecology

Notes
Additional co-authors: Ernst van der Maaten, Sjepan Mikac, Bat-Enerel Banzragch, Wolfgang Beck, Hugues Claessens, Vojtěch ?ada, Katarina ?ufar, Choimaa Dulamsuren, Jozica Gri?ar, Eustaquio Gil-Pelegrín, Pavel Janda, Marko Kazimirovic, Juergen Kreyling, Nicolas Latte, Christoph Leuschner, Luis Alberto Longares, Annette Menzel, Maks Merela, Renzo Motta, Lena Muffler, Paola Nola, Any Mary Petritan, Ion Catalin Petritan, Peter Prislan, ?lvaro Rubio-Cuadrado, Milo? Rydval, Branko Staji?, Miroslav Svoboda, Elvin Toromani, Volodymyr Trotsiuk, Martin Wilmking, Tzvetan Zlatanov & Martin de Luis

Journal
Communications Biology: Volume 5, Issue 1

• Published version