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Citation

Scelles N (2009) L’incertitude du résultat, facteur clé de succès du spectacle sportif professionnel : L’intensité compétitive des ligues : Entre impacts mesurés et effets per?us [Uncertainty of outcome, key success factor of professional sport spectacle. Competitive intensity of leagues: Between measured impacts and perceived effects]. Doctor of Philosophy. University of Caen.

Abstract
The economic literature on professional sport establishes a strong link between uncertainty of outcome and public demand (Andreff, 2008; Neale, 1964; Rottenberg, 1956). It corresponds to competitive balance concept. In the continuity of previous studies, this thesis starts from the following statement: under a set of sports rules, it must be envisageable to optimize the spectacular character of competitions and so public demand in favorising uncertainty of outcome, reversals and the existence of stakes. These three elements determine competitive intensity (CI) concept. The problem consists in wondering about rules which allow optimizing CI of professional sports leagues and the feasibility of their setting up considering leagues and clubs officials perception. Quantitative results reveal the clear-sightedness of specific rules: at the intra-match state, bonus systems lead to a stronger outcome uncertainty; at the intra-championship state, the existence of a greater number of ranks with stakes (playoffs, qualifying ranks for continental competitions, relegations) allow concerning more teams in regular season. Nevertheless officials’ interviews make perceived brakes about the introduction of these rules (illegibility of bonus systems, qualification of a too great number of teams in playoffs questioning the sports merit or even the posture of the regular season, economic risk related to relegations). Consequently CI optimization must integrate these constraints.